Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
